The future (and past) of mobile phones
Written on May 17, 2008 – 7:25 pm
Boris Veldhuijzen van Zanten,
There is a large group of people who think that the future of the web is in mobile. Mobile applications, mobile websites, mobile gadgets and mobile technologies. Although I agree that mobile is an interesting market I’m just not that excited by it. Sure, everything will become mobile. But everything will also become bigger, faster and more interactive.
There are some opportunities there but as far as I can tell this is just a natural extension or next step for the web and not a whole new phenomena that changes everything. In a way the iPhone is a nice illustration for this. It has a ‘normal’ web browser and there is no need to enhance (or dumb down) your website to make it look good on this device. And sure, location based information is cool. But how cool is it exactly? The examples (”find a restaurant near you!!!”) are often dull and not very scalable (how often do YOU actually need to find a restaurant near you?).
Still, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money with new mobile applications and I’m sure that right now I just miss the imagination to see where this is all leading us to. I wouldn’t be the first:
‘In the 1980s, McKinsey & Co forecast a world maket of 900,000 phones by the year 2000. Today, 900,000 handsets are sold every three days’.
Here is a nice video that illustrates the evolution of mobile phones since 1985. Besides the cute images there are also some great quotes, like the one above, in there:
Oh, who can tell me (without looking it up in the IMDB!) what the first movie was that featured a mobile phone?
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The Next Web Blog is closely associated with The Next Web Conference which is held annually in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. At this event speakers from all over the world come together to talk about, and show of, the future of the Web. (
By Tjeerd Wiersma on May 17, 2008 | Reply
I think the first movie that ever featured a mobile phone was actually Wall Street. Gordon Gekko was holding a similar phone as in the picture above and was making a call. Looking back, it really looks ridiculous, but then again Oliver Stone captured the moment.
By Travis Choma on May 17, 2008 | Reply
Wall Street was in 1987. Lethal weapon also from 1987 had the dynaTac 8000X. But according to the BBC the 1984 movie 16 candles was the first movie to show that phone.
By Yuri van Geest on May 17, 2008 | Reply
I think Wall Street is correct.
On mobile phones and mobile internet:
In my view the mobile phone incl. mobile internet is the seventh mass medium outperforming the PC-Internet on many levels and territories. PC is static and limited in functionality while mobile is dynamic, integrated with the real world and expandable in new uses (biosensing, wallet, tracking, augmented reality, GeoWeb etc. etc.). Some functionalities are also on PC or laptop but they don’t make as much as sense due to limited portability and availability.
Regards,
Yuri
SPRXmobile
Mobile Monday Amsterdam
By Raimo on May 17, 2008 | Reply
Boris,
We really need to talk. I have so much to tell you about mobile. It will change the whole game… ;-)
By Steven on May 18, 2008 | Reply
I’m sure Boris is having a good wind up on this one.
;)
By Eelco Lempsink on May 18, 2008 | Reply
Great point about location based information. But still, I believe it can be very disruptive once technology advances and people actually start using it (that’s when the ideas really start flowing.)
Being able to get information you need at the last possible moment really changes our behaviour. We’ve seen that with cell phones. Hardly anybody makes very precise appointments anymore, because you’ll be able to figure out where you should be at the last moment. If you have a vague idea of where you should be, you don’t look it up on a map, but just go and see if you can find it or else call for instructions.
The same holds for the restaurant example. It’s not very exciting that you can look up restaurants, you can already do that. And when you’re planning a dinner in a city you’re not very familiar with, you probably do that, beforehand. But when you can do it the last possible moment, it changes the game. You’ll just meet up, have some drinks, whip out your mobile device and only then decide what restaurant you’ll go to.
And because the decision making is changing, advertisers will probably change up as well. There’s theoretically a lot of potential ;)
By Berco on May 19, 2008 | Reply
Indeed, there will not be a mobile version of the web. Russell Beattie clearly explains why not:
http://www.russellbeattie.com/.....-of-mowser
Still, the growing number of web-based services will be consumed from an increasing number of appliances, many of which will be mobile. But as you said, it will be an evolution of the existing web, not a revolution. Revolutions are extremely rare. :)
2B